2 October 2025
Amr Hussein Elalfy
But when will you consider accepting the MTO?
If MTO price is higher than the market price and its fair value.
But when will you reject the MTO?
If MTO price is lower than the market price and its fair value.

By: Amr Hussein Elalfy, CFA & Mohamed Hosny
VALU [VALU] (officially named U Consumer Finance) is a leading financial technology (fintech) platform, offering a suite of financial services to individuals and businesses. Since its launch in 2017, VALU has continued to provide a wide range of consumer finance products.
As a pioneer of BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) solutions, VALU is the No. 1 player in that market segment, providing customizable financing plans for up to 60 months across more than 6,000 points of sale and over 1,500 online stores, covering a diverse array of categories.
In addition to its lending and payment services, VALU also offers investment products, an instant cash redemption program, savings solutions, and a financing solution to facilitate the purchase of big-ticket items up to EGP 15 million in the luxury space.
In 2024, VALU issued a total of EGP 14.8 billion in loans, partially financing a total gross merchandise value of EGP 16.5 billion through 4.1 million transactions. In 2025 so far, VALU’s market share stood at around 25%. If we exclude auto loans, that market share goes up to around 27%. More recently, VALU tapped the prepaid card business, ranking first in terms of card growth.
Instead of going public through the normal initial public offering (IPO) that companies usually resort to, VALU will be trading on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) following its direct listing.
However, direct listing alone does not make a stock tradable, which is why EFG Holding [HRHO], VALU’s parent company and the leading investment bank in the region, decided to distribute some of its profits to its shareholders in the form of an in-kind dividend distribution of a partial stake in VALU in lieu of a cash distribution. This marks a milestone in the Egyptian stock market and opens the door for other EGX-listed companies to follow suit the same route, which would create immediate trading liquidity in newly-listed companies.
By the conclusion of this transaction, each HRHO shareholder will eventually own a piece of VALU directly. This would technically lead to a lower market value for HRHO, which is the fourth largest constituent of the EGX 30 index.
In other words, think of it as carving out 20.5% of VALU from HRHO’s market capitalization, while having HRHO through its wholly-owned entity EFG Finance Holding retain at least 67% of VALU.
According to our calculation, we estimate that VALU’s free float will eventually be 12%.
Below is VALU’s shareholder structure pre and post transaction, based on our estimates.

The size of financing within Egypt’s non-banking financial services (NBFS) industry grew 2% YoY in 2024 to EGP 911.5 billion. However, consumer finance has been a steadily expanding segment within the NBFS industry. In 2024, consumer finance recorded a YoY financing growth of 29.6%. Also, its share of the overall NBFS market also increased, rising from 5.3% in 2023 to 6.7% in 2024.
| Non-banking financials financing(EGPbn) | 2023 | 2024 | YoY growth |
| Capital Market | 601.7 | 535.5 | -11.0% |
| Leasing | 117.5 | 118.9 | 1.2% |
| MSM Enterprises* | 72.6 | 95.8 | 32.0% |
| Factoring | 44 | 74.6 | 69.5% |
| Consumer Finance | 47.3 | 61.3 | 29.6% |
| Mortgage | 10.4 | 25.5 | 145.2% |
| Total | 893.5 | 911.5 | 2.0% |

The number of clients within Egypt’s consumer finance segment grew nearly sixteenfold between 2020 and 2024, rising from over 250,000 to more than 4 million. This rapid expansion was driven by growing demand for credit given a growing financial awareness and in view of rising inflation which negatively impacted the purchasing power of Egyptians. As a result, according to our calculation, the penetration rate—as measured by the number of consumer finance clients relative to the total population—rose significantly from 0.3% in 2020 to 3.9% in 2024.

Currently, there are 45 companies licensed to provide consumer finance services in Egypt. According to the FRA’s latest monthly report, consumers primarily seek financing for three key categories: cars, electronics, and home appliances—together accounting for nearly half of total consumer finance demand.

In Q1-2025, the consumer finance segment saw remarkable growth, with the number of clients surging by 188% YoY to 2.3 million (a quarterly figure). Meanwhile, the total value of financing increased by nearly 45%, amounting to EGP 17.5 billion, noting that Q1-2025 is usually the lowest of all quarters.
| Consumer finance KPIs | Q1-2024 | Q1-2025 | YoY growth |
| Number of clients (million) | 0.8 | 2.3 | 188% |
| Total value of financing (EGP billion) | 12.1 | 17.5 | 45% |
As a consumer finance service provider, VALU generates its revenues primarily by extending credit to individual and business customers. Its core income streams include interest income from consumer finance as well as gains from securitization activities—both in the form of upfront profits and residual surpluses.
Additionally, VALU benefits from discounts earned through supplier arrangements and other revenue sources tied to the nature of its financing operations, such as late fees, prepaid cards, and early repayment fees.

The nature of the consumer finance segment, combined with VALU’s strong brand positioning and equity, led to a robust financial performance and rapid growth. This is evident in the substantial increases in transaction volume, Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), and loan issuances, which have achieved impressive 5-year CAGRs of 137%, 118%, and 116%, respectively.


VALU is a pioneer in the BNPL space, outgrowing the consumer finance industry
Being a key player in the segment, VALU has been growing robustly, doubling its market share—as measured by the total value of loan issuances—from 11.9% in 2020 to 23.9% in 2024. Moreover, VALU’s 4-year CAGR of loan issuances is around 1.5x the overall consumer finance segment’s.


VALU’s diversified approach resulted in a massive market share growth in a shrinking auto market
VALU tapped into new financing and payments markets, grabbing a considerable market share by offering consumer-friendly and easy financing and payment solutions. In Q1-2025, VALU commanded market shares of 37.5% market share in the prepaid card market as well as 15.2% in the auto market share (vs 2.4% in Q1-2024).
VALU’s growth was reflected in its profitability ratios, mainly ROE
The overall growth in VALU’s metrics, such as the volume of transactions, the total Gross Merchandise Value (GMV), the loan issuances, and the number of merchants, all contributed to the increase in the company’s ROE which grew more than fivefold, rising from 5% in 2020 to 25.8% in 2024.

AI-driven risk management to address surging growth, while maintaining a solid risk profile
Artificial intelligence (AI) tools can analyze vast amounts of data, improving credit assessments and fraud detection. This proactive approach helps VALU identify and mitigate potential risks, reducing default rates and enhancing overall portfolio quality.
Despite growing on multiple fronts, VALU has a solid risk profile by maintaining its 90+ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio below 1%. In addition, VALU has a debt-to-equity ratio 4.7x (versus a maximum threshold of 9x as per Egypt’s regulations).

A well-recognized fintech player with a strong brand equity benefiting from the first-mover advantage
Early entry into the market allowed VALU to capture a loyal customer base. The company’s strong brand equity enhances customer trust, drives repeat usage, and reduces customer acquisition costs over time.
A beneficiary of the networking effect, driven by its transaction volume leadership
As a beneficiary of the networking effect, driven by its leadership in transaction volumes, VALU stands to gain exponential value as more users join and interact within its ecosystem. For example, according to management, a typical VALU client completes around 7 transactions per year, while a client using VALU’s prepaid card averages 10-12 transactions per month.
Access to finance through banks and non-banking financial institutions
Access to finance through both banks and non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) provides VALU with greater funding flexibility and resilience, allowing it to optimize its capital structure, reduce reliance on any single funding source, and potentially secure more favorable financing terms.
A proven track record by an innovative young management team disrupting the industry
The proven track record demonstrates the team’s ability to execute ambitious strategies, respond to market shifts, and create value through innovation.
Regional expansion to drive growth
VALU’s expansion plans shall leverage its established products, services, and operational expertise to capture additional demand and diversify its revenue streams. VALU is currently in the process of penetrating the Jordanian market.
Declining interest rates in Egypt to reduce funding cost
Declining interest rates shall improve profitability and enable more competitive lending rates to customers. Lower borrowing costs can also encourage VALU to expand its loan portfolio and take on new growth opportunities with greater financial flexibility.
Declining inflation rates in Egypt to drive demand
As inflation cools, albeit still at elevated levels, consumers may feel more confident in taking on new credit, which could support VALU’s growth. This is especially true in view of low real wage growth rate.
Utilizing current leverage buffer to support further growth
VALU can utilize the buffer between its current debt-to-equity ratio of 4.7x and the threshold debt-to-equity ratio of 9x to support further growth.
Any potential acquisition of VALU could drive growth further
Being a target for acquisition enables VALU to expand its customer base and unlock operational synergies. Acquisitions can also provide access to new markets, technologies, or capabilities, strengthening the company’s competitive position and supporting long-term value creation.
A market with low barriers to entry with rising competition from new entrants
Egypt’s consumer finance market has low barriers to entry, which poses a risk that can lead to pricing pressure, shrinking profit margins, and potential erosion of market share. This can raise investor concerns about the sustainability of growth and profitability, potentially impacting VALU’s valuation. However, VALU can differentiate itself—through its brand equity, technology, or service quality.
No cash dividend plans in the foreseeable future
The absence of cash dividend plans in the near future can be a concern for income-focused shareholders who rely on dividends as a source of return. So, from a market perception standpoint, withholding dividends can negatively affect investor sentiment. However, VALU’s plan is to reinvest retained earnings into the business, further fueling growth, which would be a sound long-term strategy if effectively executed.
Potentially a limited free float percentage
A potentially limited free float of 12% implied a total free float market capitalization of less than EGP 2 billion (based on the IFA valuation). This can lead to a relatively low trading activity on the stock. Such reduced trading liquidity may also make it harder for investors to trade the stock without impacting its price significantly. It also tends to discourage institutional investors who require sufficient float to build or exit positions efficiently.
The risk of existing pre-transaction shareholders selling off
A significant sell-off by early investors can lead to a sharp decline in the stock price, especially if the float is already limited. This can negatively affect market sentiment and deter new investors who may fear continued downward pressure from this sell-off overhang.
If interest rates reverse direction higher or rate cuts come in slower than expected
Since the consumer finance segment relies heavily on borrowing, higher interest rates or slower- than-expected rate cuts mean a higher-than-expected cost of funding. This can compress VALU’s profit margins and reduce its ability to offer competitive lending terms. On the demand side, consumers may become more hesitant to take on credit, leading to slower loan growth.
If VALU approaches the maximum allowed leverage threshold
This could limit VALU’s ability to raise additional debt to support future growth or absorb financial shocks. Operating near the regulatory ceiling also signals elevated financial risk, which may concern investors.
If the market dries up with demand for securitization faltering
Faltering demand for securitization could significantly impact VALU’s liquidity and funding strategy. Securitization is often a key tool for converting outstanding receivables into immediate capital (cash), and a slowdown in demand would limit this avenue, potentially forcing the company to rely more heavily on costlier or less flexible funding sources.
]]>About a year ago, we advised investors to avoid City Lab [CILB] because of its small size and a strategy that is yet to be proven. Fast forward to today, and the company—now called Premium Healthcare Group [PHGC]—is undergoing a significant transformation. You can think of it as “City Lab 2.0.”
So, what’s happened since then?
In November 2024, PHGC shared a study outlining its expansion plans in Egypt as well as outside Egypt. It’s targeting Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan. We saw two main parts to this plan:
And now, PHGC is moving forward with that plan through a massive capital increase—growing its paid-in capital by 29 times, from EGP81.5 million to EGP2.36 billion. Most of that increase is coming through a debt-to-equity swap.
Over the past year, PHGC acquired several businesses. It paid for some in cash, but the rest (worth EGP1.32 billion) was recorded as “dues to related parties”—essentially money it owes to the sellers of those businesses.
To settle that debt, PHGC is issuing new shares. The sellers will receive PHGC shares in return for their ownership in the businesses acquired. So instead of being creditors, they’ll now become shareholders.
This capital increase is huge—and it changes the game for current and potential investors. Many of you have asked whether you should participate or not. Before you decide, here are a few key points to consider.
If you’re eligible to participate in the capital increase but choose not to, your position will likely take a big hit.
Here’s why:
The number of new shares being issued is 28 times the existing number, and they’re being offered at just 10% of the stock’s market price before the ex-right date.
So, you’re left with two choices:
Many shareholders are seeing losses in their portfolio. But those losses are likely due to the drop in the value of the rights—not necessarily the stock itself.
Here’s how to think about it:
To avoid locking in those losses, subscribing is your best option—it helps protect the total value of your holdings.
There are a few important things to keep in mind:
The owners of the acquired businesses (who are subscribing with their dues) will own most of the new shares. While 25% of their shares will be locked up for 2 years, they’re free to sell the remaining 75%, which could pressure the stock price when those new shares start trading.
The simple answer: to fund its expansion strategy.
Here’s the breakdown, based on PHGC’s 2024 financial statements:
To answer that, compare what you’d pay (right + subscription cost = EGP0.11/share) to the market price of PHGC.
It’s key to monitor the total payoff of the right, not just its market price.
You can also download this sheet to model different scenarios based on your own cost basis.
We haven’t done a full valuation exercise yet, given PHGC is still on the SMEs board and the performance of the merged group isn’t fully known.
But we do know this:
Bottom line: The key will be whether PHGC delivers strong growth after the capital increase.
Here’s how we’d sum it up:
Keep in mind: Subscribed shares won’t be tradable right away—you’ll be exposed to market moves in the meantime.
If this sounds like a potential opportunity for you (it should!) we’ll guide you on all the ‘must-knows’ of this IPO.

Act Financial is an Egyptian investment company founded in 2015, focusing on the Egyptian stock market. They follow an active investment approach – which means that they buy a stake in a company with the aim of influencing its decisions, unlike a passive investor who invests and sits back.
The upcoming IPO for Act Financial is an exciting opportunity several reasons:
This IPO is best suited for two types of investors:
What the beginners need to know:
First off it’s important to understand what an IPO is, and how it works – we recommend you you go through our light read here on the Thndr learn platform to do this.
Act Financial has a 1-month stabilization fund that covers 100% of the IPO retail offering. This means that on day 30 of the IPO, you can sell your shares for the price you bought them at. If you bought them for EGP 2.9/share for example, and their price fell to EGP 1/share, you can sell them back for EGP 2.9/share. Also, to make this even more compelling, Thndr will be waiving transaction fees if you sell in the stabilization fund (doesn’t get more risk-free than this!)
Here’s how it works:
Let’s take an example: If you place an order for 20,000 shares but the IPO is oversubscribed 20 times, you will only receive 1,000 shares (1 over 20 of what you ordered, based on the oversubscription rate).
It’s important to know that this is very common during an IPO, and bound to happen to the majority of investors – setting your expectations on this will help you manage your expected returns better.
While oversubscription is common, it’s also important to be aware of the possibility of undersubscription. If the IPO is undersubscribed, you might end up needing more money than you originally planned for.
For example: If you place an order with 4x your money, and it ends up being subscribed by only 2x, you would need to deposit fund in your wallet equivalent to the difference on the first trading day or sell your shares. This is a crucial consideration to keep in mind as you plan your investment strategy for the Act Financial IPO.
However, you also need to take watch out for undersubscription
Subscription in the public offering starts from 9th of July till the 23rd of July; to participate in Act Financial’s IPO, follow these simple steps:
If you’re an active investment-seeker – dive in:
As a more experienced investor, this is a refresh on what we recommend you need to review before taking further action in this IPO:
If you’re not on Rumble, make sure to subscribe where you can find information on all the key factors mentioned above & a recent exclusive interview with Mostafa Abdelaziz and Karim Neema, Co-founders and Managing Partners at Act Financial.
For more in depth details we also have the IPO prospectus – which you can review here, and the company’s IPO teaser which you can view here.
If you’re interested in participating in the private offering, please fill in this form to complete the offline process
The minimum subscription is 1,750,000 shares and it’s important to note that there is no stabilization fund. Once the form is filled, we’ll reach out with more details and exact process. Please note that the deadline for the private offering is earlier, and ends on July 18th.
If you have any questions for us regarding the IPO, we will be conducting a Live Q&A Webinar soon, please put your questions in this link here and we will be answering them.
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